Publication
Pavel, T., Hasan, S., Halim, N., & Mozumder, P. (2022). Impacts of transient and permanent environmental shocks on internal migration. Applied Economics, 1-24.
We examined whether floods and cyclones, the shocks that are transient in nature, affect interregional migration differently compared to riverbank erosion that causes loss of lands and thus generates permanent shocks. For our investigation, we tracked participants of Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2000 in nine coastal districts in Bangladesh and collected further
information in 2015. Our analyses suggest that both transient and permanent shocks induce households to migrate but the effect is much higher for the latter category. Comparing income and expenditure of migrant- and non-migrant households in a matched difference-in-differences setting, we find that the former group is better off relative to their counterparts, indicating that facilitating migration can improve welfare. Rising exposure to climate change induced natural disasters imply that our findings will be increasingly relevant for designing policies to address vulnerability in disaster-prone countries with weak social safety nets.
We examined whether floods and cyclones, the shocks that are transient in nature, affect interregional migration differently compared to riverbank erosion that causes loss of lands and thus generates permanent shocks. For our investigation, we tracked participants of Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2000 in nine coastal districts in Bangladesh and collected further
information in 2015. Our analyses suggest that both transient and permanent shocks induce households to migrate but the effect is much higher for the latter category. Comparing income and expenditure of migrant- and non-migrant households in a matched difference-in-differences setting, we find that the former group is better off relative to their counterparts, indicating that facilitating migration can improve welfare. Rising exposure to climate change induced natural disasters imply that our findings will be increasingly relevant for designing policies to address vulnerability in disaster-prone countries with weak social safety nets.
Pavel, T., & Mozumder, P. (2019). Household Preferences for Managing Coastal Vulnerability: State vs. Federal Adaptation Fund. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 3(3), 281-304.
People living in the coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the extreme weather events and climatic shocks. In this paper, we analyze households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for public adaptation funds to support proactive measures that would potentially minimize the extent of coastal vulnerability. Using split-sample dichotomous choice contingent valuation (CV) method, we investigate households’ preference for a state adaptation fund (SAF) versus a federal adaptation fund (FAF), lasting for either 5 or 10 years. We analyze more than 1200 randomly selected household responses from the counties of 10 Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States that were adversely affected by a major hurricane (Sandy). From the annual estimates of median WTP, we observe that the households are willing to pay more for SAF ($68.37) than FAF ($27.35). The findings can provide inputs for policy evaluation to minimize coastal vulnerability, particularly to decide whether similar projects should be managed at the state or federal levels.
People living in the coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the extreme weather events and climatic shocks. In this paper, we analyze households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for public adaptation funds to support proactive measures that would potentially minimize the extent of coastal vulnerability. Using split-sample dichotomous choice contingent valuation (CV) method, we investigate households’ preference for a state adaptation fund (SAF) versus a federal adaptation fund (FAF), lasting for either 5 or 10 years. We analyze more than 1200 randomly selected household responses from the counties of 10 Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States that were adversely affected by a major hurricane (Sandy). From the annual estimates of median WTP, we observe that the households are willing to pay more for SAF ($68.37) than FAF ($27.35). The findings can provide inputs for policy evaluation to minimize coastal vulnerability, particularly to decide whether similar projects should be managed at the state or federal levels.
Papers Under Review
Flood and Wind Risk Perception: A Comparative Analysis of Evacuation Behavior During Hurricane Ivan
[with Pallab Mozumder, Subrina Tahsin, and Hugh Gladwin]
Flood and wind are the major risk factors that can influence people’s evacuation behavior during a hurricane event. This paper explores the differences in hazard-specific risk perceptions (flood risk vs. wind risk) in respondent’s evacuation decision. Both risk perception and evacuation behaviors reflect complex behavioral dynamics which can be shaped by a host of factors. We analyze more than eight hundred randomly selected household responses from the states of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi following Hurricane Ivan. The survey data was geocoded which allowed us to build a geo-spatial database that was integrated to the household survey data. The geo-spatial variables such as distance from shoreline, distance from evacuation route and tract, wind and rain exposure during hurricane Ivan, elevation of house from mean sea level are location specific variables that help us to gain a better understanding of flood risk perception (FRP) and wind risk perception (WRP) and their role in explaining evacuation behavior. Based on two sets of Bivariate Probit (BP) models, the empirical analyses suggest that FRP positively affects evacuation decision while the WRP negatively affects evacuation decision.
[with Pallab Mozumder, Subrina Tahsin, and Hugh Gladwin]
Flood and wind are the major risk factors that can influence people’s evacuation behavior during a hurricane event. This paper explores the differences in hazard-specific risk perceptions (flood risk vs. wind risk) in respondent’s evacuation decision. Both risk perception and evacuation behaviors reflect complex behavioral dynamics which can be shaped by a host of factors. We analyze more than eight hundred randomly selected household responses from the states of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi following Hurricane Ivan. The survey data was geocoded which allowed us to build a geo-spatial database that was integrated to the household survey data. The geo-spatial variables such as distance from shoreline, distance from evacuation route and tract, wind and rain exposure during hurricane Ivan, elevation of house from mean sea level are location specific variables that help us to gain a better understanding of flood risk perception (FRP) and wind risk perception (WRP) and their role in explaining evacuation behavior. Based on two sets of Bivariate Probit (BP) models, the empirical analyses suggest that FRP positively affects evacuation decision while the WRP negatively affects evacuation decision.
Household Preferences for Financing Hurricane Risk Mitigation
[with Damon Fitzgerald and Pallab Mozumder]
After a series of major storms over the last 20 years, the state of financing for
U.S. natural disaster insurance has undergone substantial disruptions causing many federal and state backed programs against residential property damage to become severally underfunded. In order to regain actuarial soundness, policy makers have proposed a shift to a system that reflects risk-based pricing for property insurance. We examine survey responses from 1394 single-family homeowners in the state of Florida for support of several natural disaster mitigation policy reforms. Utilizing a partial proportional odds model we test for effects of location, risk perception, socio-economic and housing characteristics on support for policy reforms. Our findings suggest residents across the state, not just risk-prone homeowners, support the current subsidized model. We also examine several other policy questions from the survey to verify our initial results. Finally, the implications of our findings are discussed to provide inputs to policymakers.
[with Damon Fitzgerald and Pallab Mozumder]
After a series of major storms over the last 20 years, the state of financing for
U.S. natural disaster insurance has undergone substantial disruptions causing many federal and state backed programs against residential property damage to become severally underfunded. In order to regain actuarial soundness, policy makers have proposed a shift to a system that reflects risk-based pricing for property insurance. We examine survey responses from 1394 single-family homeowners in the state of Florida for support of several natural disaster mitigation policy reforms. Utilizing a partial proportional odds model we test for effects of location, risk perception, socio-economic and housing characteristics on support for policy reforms. Our findings suggest residents across the state, not just risk-prone homeowners, support the current subsidized model. We also examine several other policy questions from the survey to verify our initial results. Finally, the implications of our findings are discussed to provide inputs to policymakers.
Working Papers
Climate Change and Adaptation Behavior in Agriculture: Evidence from Farming Practices in Bangladesh
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries impacted by the climate change.
The hydro-climatic natural hazards like floods, cyclones, and droughts etc. adversely
affect agricultural harvest on which most of the people depend for their livelihoods.
In this study we analyze farmers’ adaptation behavior in agricultural practices in
response to climate change. We use the Bangladesh Climate Change Adaptation
Survey data collected from 800 farming households. The survey was conducted
in December 2010 to February 2011, covering households from seven broad agro-
ecological zones grouped by the Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies. It
provides information on demographic characteristics, social capital, access to
credit, incidence of climatic shocks in the last five years, and adaptation options
among others. We analyze farmers’ adaptation behavior in terms of changing
cropping pattern and land use, adopting soil and water management techniques.
We identify a set of factors that facilitates adaptation behavior. We discuss policy
implications of our findings.
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries impacted by the climate change.
The hydro-climatic natural hazards like floods, cyclones, and droughts etc. adversely
affect agricultural harvest on which most of the people depend for their livelihoods.
In this study we analyze farmers’ adaptation behavior in agricultural practices in
response to climate change. We use the Bangladesh Climate Change Adaptation
Survey data collected from 800 farming households. The survey was conducted
in December 2010 to February 2011, covering households from seven broad agro-
ecological zones grouped by the Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies. It
provides information on demographic characteristics, social capital, access to
credit, incidence of climatic shocks in the last five years, and adaptation options
among others. We analyze farmers’ adaptation behavior in terms of changing
cropping pattern and land use, adopting soil and water management techniques.
We identify a set of factors that facilitates adaptation behavior. We discuss policy
implications of our findings.
The Impact of Displacement on the Mental Health: Evidence from Hurricane Maria
In September 2017, Puerto Rico was hit by the destructive Hurricane Maria. The infrastructural damages of the hurricanes leave residents without power, water, communication, and other utility services. The devastation led to a massive displacement of the people of Puerto Rico. This study aimed to assess whether those who were displaced due to Hurricane Maria had more mental health issues compared to their counterparts. To conduct this study, we surveyed 507 Puerto Rican adults in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in 2019. Using logistic regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between displacement and mental health outcomes (depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, among others) by controlling for socioeconomic factors, pre-disaster characteristics, and perceived risk. Our findings suggest that the mental health challenges are prominent among Hurricane Maria survivors, especially those who displaced permanently. Based on these results, we recommend local and federal government intervention programs to ratify plans to lessen the post-disaster mental issues and facilitate access to mental health services in the affected communities. Post-Doctoral Research Experience
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I worked as a Post-doctoral Associate in the Department of Economics & Department of Earth and Environment with Dr. Pallab Mozumder (Principal Investigator) on a National Science Foundation (NSF) awarded project “CRISP 2.0 Type 2: Collaborative Research: Organizing Decentralized Resilience in Critical Interdependent-infrastructure Systems and Processes (ORDER-CRISP)”. This project focuses on developing an integrated resilience modeling framework for mitigating vulnerabilities in critical interdependent infrastructure systems. My job responsibilities included, but were not limited to: designing the survey questionnaire, applying econometrics and geo-coded skills on data analysis, preparing bi-weekly report on the progress of the project, publishing collaborative and independent research paper in the peer reviewed journal and so on.